SUPERFORECASTING The Art and Science of Prediction

Joel Richards's polished narration and the easy journalistic style of coauthor Dan Gardner are the right combination to bring this work to a broader audience. Tetlock's academic research on our ability (and inability) to make accurate forecasts is frequently quoted in the popular media, but in an oversimplified, even inaccurate, way. Through Richards's newscaster-like delivery, the authors explain that not all forecasters are dart-throwing chimps who occasionally get lucky: Some have genuine skill. Listeners meet a small number of these fascinating people who have remarkable, persistent track records. It turns out "superforecasters" aren't gurus but simply insightful thinkers who have learned to gather, assess, and weigh all available information and then distill it into probabilities. D.B. © AudioFile 2016, Portland, Maine [Published: JANUARY 2016]